Crash Event Forecasting Algo Nails Another One

In yesterday's "Crash events forecasting also accurate at calling market tops and bottoms" article, the statistical crash probability analysis (SCPA) algorithm forecasted that the probability was 100% that the stock indices for the U.S., Japan, Germany, South Korea, and France would rally by at least 18% from their 2020 lows. At the close of the U.S. markets on March 25, 2020, an index in each of the six countries had rallied by a minimum of 18% off of their lows.

The rallies of 18% from the lows for the six countries was the fourth consecutive precisely accurate forecast by the SCPA.  Prior forecasts are contained in the table below:

The probability is now 50%:

  • That the indices will increase by 23% from their 2020 lows during their relief rallies

  • That the high for the relief rallies has occurred 

SCPA's April forecasts and probabilities:

  • 100%- relief rally will peak by April 8, 2020

  • 100%- 2020 low will be breached by April 30, 2020

SCPA's long term 100% probability forecast is for all eight of the global indices to bottom between September and November of 2022.  The probability is 100% for the markets of the countries to decline by a minimum of 79% below their 2020 highs and 50% for 89% below 2020 highs.  

Everyone should take advantage of the Bear market rally that is currently underway to GET OUT OF THE MARKET!   The bear who has arrived could potentially be more vicious than the 1929 bear market.

Since the indices have all rallied to within 18% to 27% of their 2020 highs, buy and hold investors and advisors should give serious consideration to take advantage of any rallies to liquidate holdings. The Bull & Bear Tracker, which is a trend trading algorithm, could be utilized to quickly recoup losses of 30% for investments that are liquidated and also any capital gains taxes that might be owed.  

The Bull & Bear Tracker's average gain has been above 5% per month since July of 2019. Since its first signal was published on April 9, 2018, and through the end of February 2020, the gain was 77.3% vs. 14.9% for the S&P 500.The Bull & Bear Tracker is projecting double digit gains for March 2020 while the S&P 500 will most likely have double digit losses. For more about the Bull & Bear Tracker's performance go to

An investor can only allocate capital to be traded by the Bull & Bear Tracker through an approved registered investment advisor. The investment advisor could also be utilized for an investor to get the maximum proceeds from liquidating their investments.

To be referred to an advisor click here

My prediction is that the S&P 500's secular bull market which began in March 2009 ended on February 19, 2020.  The ninth secular bear since 1802, began on February 20, 2020.

The video of my "Secular Bulls & Bears: Each requires different investing strategies" workshop at the February 2020 Orlando Money Show is highly recommended. The educational video explains secular bulls and bears and includes strategies to protect assets during secular bear markets and recessions, etc. which covers all of the emerging and declining economic and market trends is an excellent resource site.  Click here to view one-minute video about the site.

Watch my 2:50 video about my track record for predicting bankruptcies, market crashes and rallies off of crash-bottoms.

(The opinions expressed by contributing analysts do not reflect the position of CapitalWatch or its journalists. The analyst has no positions in any stocks mentioned, no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours, and no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Information provided is for educational purposes only, may be incomplete or out of date, and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice.)